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I wrote this a few weeks ago in my 2025 Outlook (I bolded/underlined a few points for emphasis): There is one distinctive trend that I have increasingly noticed across assets recently that has me quite concerned as we move into a higher risk economic environment later in the year: the exacerbation of price movements. In […]

I’ve been thinking about my 2025 outlook for almost 75 days, following the election results and market response in early November.  It wasn’t just the response in equities and crypto, it was across the entire spectrum of asset classes – USTs, FX, precious metals, and commodities. There was historical precedence to support an explosion in

Over the course of my career, it’s very rare I provide updates within a handful of days of one another. But this looks and feels very different right now. The charts across assets are saying something, and I swear they’re saying something really big is coming. Maybe it’s simply the election, and we have to

My spidey sense is tingling. And I just can’t shake it. On FOMC Wednesday a few weeks ago, the market basically did exactly what I thought it would (and laid out here) – a “hawkish” 50bps cut by JPow that saw a spike high in gold and equities, and then a strong pullback into the

Since the COVID recovery began, there have been more than a few reasons why inflation was worse in the US than any other nation in the world AND has lingered longer than any nation in the world. The biggest among them has been (and continues to be) the budget deficit. An already overleveraged entity like

As I was watching/participating in the trading action the past 72 hours, I couldn’t help but think of Ron Burgundy. While I’m confident/optimistic we have not seen THE top in the equity markets, this past week’s cross asset movements were nothing short of historic and provide a fascinating tease (not necessarily in a good way)

Here we are again… another “make or break” FOMC meeting and JPow speech. Over the past ~6 months of meetings, JPow has been as dovish as possible in the face of clear political pressure (see multiple speeches from both Biden and Yellen on the FOMC cutting rates before year end), contradictory economic and inflation data,

Unprecedented. That’s a word usually quite challenging to use when looking at historical market data points on any given trading day, and also a word that is overused incredibly and irresponsibly by both bulls and bears alike when trying to support a stance. When it comes to financial stocks, however, the degree of relative strength

It’s finally getting interesting out there. I’ll share some thoughts on the broader macro picture in a separate post, as the current economic environment is rife with the types of irregularities, inconsistencies, and aberrations you would expect given the degree of current fiscal and monetary intervention. At the moment, the broader equity markets have finally

With rare exception, divergences are a key requirement at longer-term inflection points – both tops and bottoms. The most relevant divergences occur across indices, other assets, advance-declines, and momentum. The more powerful the divergences, the greater the likelihood of the significance of the top or bottom. We’re increasingly approaching that type of powerful inflection point.